Iranian warships have been ordered to approach the United States Maritime Borders. Consider the timing. It was reported just three days ago that the International Atomic Energy is questioning Iran about their possession of nuclear detonators. The peaceful development of nuclear energy certainly doesn't require detonators.
The issue of detonator development was mentioned in a report that the IAEA prepared in 2011 containing a trove of intelligence information about alleged activities by Iran that could be used in developing atomic arms.
"Given their possible application in a nuclear explosive device, and the fact that there are limited civilian and conventional military applications for such technology, Iran's development of such detonators and equipment is a matter of concern," the IAEA said in the 2011 document.
It said Iran had told the UN agency in 2008 that it had developed such detonators for civil and conventional military applications. "However, Iran has not explained to the agency its own need or application for such detonators," it said. [Guardian]
In addition, just this week Iran fired two test missiles.
Iran has successfully test-fired two missiles, including a long-range ballistic weapon, the official IRNA news agency reported on Monday.
The report by IRNA quoted President Hassan Rouhani as congratulating the military.
The "children of Iran successfully test-fired a new generation" of weapons, he said. [Yahoo News]
The US maritime boundaries have several meanings. The territorial sea is 12 nautical miles. The furthest zone is our exclusive economic zone which is 200 nautical miles. Even an Iranian missile could fly 12 miles and probably even 200 miles. But that's not the worst of it.
Iran has embraced the concept suicide terrorism as an important component of its military doctrine. They wouldn't have to fire a missile if they had a boat loaded with nuclear weapons, rather than just the "30 navy academy cadets on a training mission" as the Iranian government claims. If so then this mission could pose a much more serious threat than we have so far publicly admitted.
Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has at least suggested that this is a threat we may have to deal with in the future.
The mission shows the danger Iran would pose if it possessed nuclear weapons, says John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush and an arms negotiator during the Cold War.
"It shows they could put a weapon on a boat or freighter, and if (Iran) has ballistic missiles it could put it anywhere on the U.S. coast," Bolton said. "Down the road it could be a threat." [USA Today]
Down the road? How far down the road? Next month?
Seriously, if you see an armed Iranian approaching you what would you think he might be up to? They don't have to launch a weapon, they could just cruise close enough and blow up the ships by nuclear detonation and destroy our Eastern seaboard. You don't think they are apt to do something like this? What, you don't think they are devious enough to do something like this?
So what do we do? Where do we stop them? At 200 miles, 12 miles, closer? How do we stop them? If they are carrying nuclear weapons could we warn them to stay away and then if they don't heed our warning then just blow them up? Could we even do that without detonating the devices? I mean, boats can carry a lot more tonnage than a briefcase or your shoes and we don't even let returning vets on airplanes without making them take off their shoes. How close are you willing to let an Iranian ship carrying a potentially devastating cargo get to the United States?
I don't know about you, but I smell a rat.
Iran's Navy wants to exert prestige and regime hardliners want to show the US that they retain significant influence. Moreover, the imagery and narrative of Iranian vessels off the US coast is a powerful one. At least in propaganda terms. Correspondingly, Iranian state media are using these claims as an opportunity to assert Iran's presentation on the international scene. Power politics rely upon successful presentation.
Posted by: Change Iran Now | February 16, 2014 at 04:07 PM