Mitch McConnell has vowed that there will not be a government shutdown when legislators return from their summer vacation and wrestle with how to fund government spending in advance of the September deadline to pass a "continuing resolution." And that statement by Mitch could be his Achilles heel.
Militant republicans in the House have made it clear that unless Obamacare is de-funded, a shutdown is inevitable. More and more House members are signing on to this pledge.
But is it good for the GOP? Analysts at POLITICO say a shutdown would be the democrat's dream.
They’d never say it publicly. But catch many Democrats in an honest moment and they would admit that a Republican-led government shut down this fall might be the best thing — perhaps the only thing — that could revive their fading hopes of capturing the House next year.
The establishment wing of the GOP, however, has warned conservatives that shutting down the government over Obamacare funding would have drastic political consequences and possibly cost the party its House majority. Some Republicans remember all too well the last shutdown, from which Clinton emerged the clear victor and the Gingrich-led House GOP took a hit.
But Sean Hannity has come out and said that if the republicans don't stop Obamacare, he's done with them.
And as the implementation of Obamacare in October draws closer, more and more people are coming to realize just how devastating it will be to the American economy.
As the Congress returns from vacation Mitch McConnell will be thrust into the spotlight over the government shutdown issue. And his stance in support of preventing a shutdown, though probably the right move, could have disastrous political consequences as the more vocal and militant among the TEA party in Kentucky steps up its demands that its elected officials do everything possible to stop Obamacare, even if it means not sending grandma her social security check.
McConnell and Rand Paul have both vowed that a shutdown will not happen, but Rand has found a way to keep one foot on the boat and one on the dock without falling in.
As Ryan Alessi has noted, the fact that Thomas Massie and Andy Barr are signed on to the shutdown plan, while both US Senators doubt that the tactic will work, shows just how much of a "tug-of-war" is going on inside the GOP.
So while the days of summer vacation fade from their calendars Kentucky's republicans will have to decide whether McConnell's position on the Obamacare issue squares with what they perceive is required of him, or whether he is inclined to capitulate to the democrats, not support the effort to defund Obamacare, and punish him for his position.
Or, whether, he and Rand Paul can make a convincing case to the public that shutting down the government isn't a good idea for them personally, and certainly not a good idea for increasing the strength of the party.
The entire debate is shaping up to be a "high noon" moment early in this campaign and one where any stumble by McConnell could have lasting effect.
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