Elections Post Mortem: The Marcus Carey Perspective

Politics is a mix of science and art.  The art part is largely luck.  The science part is planning and execution.  Luck is very hard to control, science is much easier.  Why the republican ticket did not come out on top in this year's constitutional races has everything to do with the science of politics.

There are basically four parts to a political victory: name recognition, likeability, issue identity and voter turnout.  Each part must be pursued in that order.  Where the various candidates failed to win, one can examine their campaigns by looking at these components and find the answer why.

For most of the down ticket races name recognition was a big hurdle.  With the exception of K.C. Crosbie and Bill Johnson, the others had very little statewide name ID.  In today's world, getting name ID is tough.  There is a lot of competition for people's attention.  Penetration and repetition requires a lot of money, a solid plan or the help of the media.  Think about it.  You know and love certain songs because you've heard them over and over.  Without "air time" they'd all just be noise.

In this area the statewide media is a problem for republicans.  It tends to lean toward democrats.  To get attention one must compete for it.  None of the down ticket candidates spent enough time on this aspect of their campaigns.

On the other hand David Williams had very high name recognition.  He was torpedoed by the media over likeability.  They created and defined him as "not well liked" and the image stuck.  Is it true?  Of course not, but in politics perception is reality and the democrats and the media conspired to push that image on the public because Williams had such high name ID that their job was easy.  All they had to do was define him before he defined himself, and they did.

It is a common mistake among political newcomers to think that political campaigns are about issues.  Yes it's true that issues often motivate people to seek office, but they don't win campaigns when the voter doesn't know the candidate or like him/her.  To be accepted the message has to be delivered by someone they know and like.  That's human nature.

Those who hated George Bush could never accept that he had any good ideas.  The same is true about those who despise Barack Obama.  Intellectual honesty often is compromised by emotional considerations.

Because Williams was painted as "unlikeable" and the down ticket candidates were generally unknown, their messages were not well received and certainly did not motivate voters.

But the biggest problem in all of the GOP races was voter turnout.  And here is where I point the finger of blame.

Where the race is partisan each nominee should be able to count upon a large majority of his/her party faithful to vote for them in the general election.  Obviously each won a majority in the primary so those votes should be there.

The trick is a delicate balance of winning over those in your party who voted for the other guy in May and reaching out to those in the other party who did not get their choice nominated.  In other words, to build a big enough block of votes requires that you concentrate upon the unhappy voters while at the same time keeping your base energized.

In the republican primary Phil Moffett ran on a slogan which went something like this: "It's all about principles and not about politics."  Well that sounded good, but in reality the slogan was all about politics.  That philosophy was adopted in order to reach out to a block of voters of like mind and to acquire their votes.  That is politics.

Unfortunately a small number of republicans who were new to the process failed to see his campaign for what it was.  They became "true believers" mesmerized by the altruistic illusion that principles alone can carry the day.  They had little prior experience in the blood letting of political warfare.

And with all due respect, their hopes and wishes for a day when principles and not politics would determine elections is a worthy and laudable goal.  But it is not yet a reality any more than a world at peace devoid of bad people out to hurt us is a reality.  When surrounded by evil in order to survive you only turn the other cheek long enough to reload your weapons.  For utopia to be achieved you must first destroy the bad guys.

Those who worked the Moffett campaign and left it bitter over the loss failed to identify the enemy.  Their constant cry that "we need to elect better candidates" goes without saying, but when the choice is limited between two people, those battles must be reserved for another day and another primary.  You might not like having to choose between death or surgery but when that's all you've got making no choice is in fact making a choice.

Some who gained a small level of accomplishment in the Moffett campaign never closed ranks with Williams.  Some fomented continued hatred as if Moffett was not running to become the republican nominee.  I do not blame Moffett himself, but some with whom he surrounded himself did damage to the republican cause for which their man sought a leadership position and for that they should be ignored henceforth.

I know that some of my TEA party friends say that they are not working to advance the republican cause, and that is fine.  But for the foreseeable future there will be only two parties with a chance to win.  If you choose to remain independent that is your right.  But it comes with consequences.

You will not have a voice in the primary.  You will not win as an Independent.  And you should not try to destroy party loyalty among others.  When you join a political party it is much like joining an organization.  You JOIN them.  If your goal is to infiltrate a party for the purpose of destroying it from within, you would be better to expend your energy elsewhere.  It is an improper motive, dishonest and will do nothing more than give the enemy the advantage of doing battle against scattered troops.

But that doesn't mean that the RPK isn't to blame or doesn't need to have its house cleaned out.  In this year's elections it stumbled terribly.  It failed once again to activate and mobilize the organization it has on paper right in front of it every day by which a massive voter turnout effort could have saved the day.

But more importantly, just when a new energy was emerging from within, the RPK telegraphed every intention to close ranks, change the rules and seemed determined to keep the new energy out.  A little re-thinking altered their course but the damage had been done.  To the TEA party types a shot had been fired across their bow.  The RPK viewed reorganization as "us versus them" and all hell broke loose.

This did severe damage to David Williams.  It alienated loyal conservatives newly engaged and eager to have more voice in the future of the Commonwealth.  They could not separate the party establishment from Williams himself instead viewing him as a product of that ilk.  We all make mistakes, but the timing of these discussions regarding changes to the rules of re-organization was about as bone-headed and obtuse as they come.  Being wrong is one thing.  But failing to appreciate the impact that such atrocious timing would have on current races comes very close to being unforgivable.

And there is other blame to go around as well, particularly for those of my fellow warriors with whom I've stood shoulder to shoulder in battle after battle over the years.  The whisper campaign against David Williams may have permitted you to commiserate with others regarding your personal feelings about the man.  But it was disrespectful to the party and our cause.  Soldiers do not refuse to fight because they don't like the commander in chief.

Oh, I know, there are always private agendas at work and people will often snipe at the front-runner hoping he will trip so they can gain some advantage.  But there was once an eleventh commandment among us.  It was not born out of honor, but out of necessity. 

We are now and have always been the underdogs.  We are out numbered.  We confront not only the named enemy but a complicit press.  We stand on principles but fight in the same arena as the lions that oppose us.  When we speak ill of each other we cause doubt within our ranks which leads to dissension and desertion.  When we speak ill of each other we add power to our enemies propaganda.  When we speak ill of each other we give ammunition to the media with which to destroy our leaders.  When we speak ill of each other, we disrespect our friends, show our disloyalty and demean ourselves.

Those who chose to enter the fight deserve credit for their courage and stamina.  Those who failed them need to take a few minutes to re-assess what more could have been done.

There will be new battles.  There will be new contests.  New faces will emerge and seek our support. 

But there will always be the same enemy, the one who lies to us, deceives us, causes us to question the word of God and to turn away from Him and toward the avarice of men. 

No matter whether they arise as kings, declare themselves dictators or slowly erode our unalienable rights in subtle but ever encroaching ways, the enemies of liberty  will always be there, and the defense of liberty will always be the burden the rest of us have to bear.

Comments

[Mr. Scott Ryan]

It takes tremendous courage, insight, and humility for a man cloaked in status quo, partisan garb for over 40 years to simply choose another path leaving his network of friends and associates behind because he has seen the errors of his ways and reject the notion that a fork in the road at this stage in his life should be left for others to take.

You made that choice almost 3 years ago and now it seems that you changed your mind and turned around.

It makes me sad. I will say a prayer for you tonight.
[Marc's reply: Sorry Scott but I don't follow your logic here. Left what path, turned around how?]

[OnPoint]

Maybe you should blame David Williams for the huge loss. After all, he is the one who has pushed a liberal agenda in the Legislature the better part of the last three decades. Witness his vote for KERA when all the other Republicans said NO. Senator Williams resurrected and passed the nanny state seat belt law. Now he is out to trample property rights with his State wide smoking ban proposal. And it is Senator Williams who has given us the billions in bonded indebtedness in this Commonwealth. This man brought down other good candidates with his antics.

[BoydObserver]

Thought you were naming names today??

[Lawson Lambert]

The rpk rules changes were definitely bad timing. But one of the main points was supposed republicans signing third party petitions. Some on the tea party side felt it shouldn't be held against somebody for "opening up the process", but today we see that it probably cost KC Crosbie the treasurers office. That's a pretty substantial consequence for people that want to be a part of GOP leadership.

[Just sayin']

Well said.