We spend millions of dollars a year on the National Weather Service. The only thing it gets right is telling pilots what is happening too far out their windows for them to see themselves. Predictions more than a few hours out are apparently too much under the control of nature to be understood by man.
Just look at the way the predictions of a white Christmas have bounced around this week. I even heard one forecaster say "We can expect between 1 and 10 inches of snow on Christmas Day". WHAT??!!! With that margin of error you'd think he'd given himself enough wiggle room to be right, right? Well the very next day he said "Now the models are showing the storm passing to our south, missing us entirely".
OH, Come on! Let me dispel the myth of predicting weather. It's a hoax. The news channels use the weather man to get you to watch their show. Do you really tune in every night to hear about the latest house fire? Do you really care that another fight broke out between drunk meth dealers somewhere in an alley? Is that why you tune in?
No. You tune in because they tease the show with predictions of "white death" "killer heat waves" "torrential rainstorms" "possible tornadoes" and the like. And of course since they can't predict the weather at all (do you really need more proof?) then they are free to just make it up. I mean, we've become so accustomed to them being wrong, what's the risk of being wrong on purpose?
Soooooo....for all of you our there who still stare at TV programs, movies and "documentaries" predicting how man made global warming is about to bring an end to life as we know it, then let me ask you this: do you really think they can predict the weather years away, when they can't even get Christmas right?
Now don't be too hard on yourself. You might just be one of those kind hearted people who doesn't think about things as deeply as others. Here's a way to test yourself to find if you are just a nice person who is easily fooled. Ask yourself this question: are you still amazed how time and time again when you are looking for something, it always seems to be in the last place you look? No, really, do you still think that this truism is some kind of magical coincidence?
Well then you probably belong to that large group of people who have not come to realize that the reason the thing you are looking for is always found in the last place you look is because only a fool would keep looking in other places for something he has already found. It's okay, but now that you have reached a new level of awakening you don't have to be a democrat anymore. You've got until December 31st to change your party affilliation.
But, in the meantime, if you have the irresistable urge to run out and buy up all the bread and milk, hunker down in front of the TV and engage in hours of wide eyed blinking, then get ready. What you are really going to see will be jovial weather gals and dudes snookering you into watching hours worth of house fire reports and drunken brawls so they can sell commercial advertising.
And if you REALLY want to get scared then check out this report from the Sydney Morning Herald:
Piers Corbyn works in an undistinguished office in Borough High Street. He has no telescope or supercomputer. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again.
He seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people - notably in farming - are starting to invest in his forecasts.
I have not a clue whether his methods are sound or not.
Piers Corbyn believes that the last three winters could be the harbinger of a mini ice age that could be upon us by 2035, and that it could start to be colder than at any time in the last 200 years. He goes on to speculate that a genuine ice age might then settle in, since an ice age is now cyclically overdue.
Happy now?