Mitch McConnell seems poised to defeat Matt Bevin pretty handily in the May primary, but the growing question around the coffee cups is whether he can survive November.
Alison Lundergan Grimes is out raising some pretty serious cash, and she isn't spending much of it foolishly. She has gathered a star studded group of supporters to add Hollywood pizazz to her campaign and, sorry ladies, her gender is a bit of an advantage in today's political climate.
Add to that the fact that those with seething hate for McConnell among the Bevin crowd will not mend fences and vote for Mitch. And among the GOP in general there is none of the old guard party loyalty that at one time kept guys like Mitch in power.
Mitch may very well have a November strategy in mind and if history is any kind of teacher at all it will likely be a combination of touting his accomplishments and slamming Alison pretty hard. But what he needs after May is something he needs to be working on now.
Mitch needs more than a few allies out there forming an echo chamber for him. He needs his ground game in place early this time, reminding folks why keeping Mitch is better for Kentucky.
So many of today's political observers want to couch every discussion in terms of what is good for the nation. They see the huge political picture but not the local one.
Mitch needs to be working his network and have them out working for him, talking him up, using the local angle as the key to winning in November.
As many national observers are now beginning to admit, it looks like the GOP is going to capture the Senate majority. Wouldn't it be a shame if we made that happen and Kentucky lost Mitch as the majority leader, instead replacing him with an Obama loyalist, back bencher and rookie public servant?
It could happen if Mitch forgets to warm up his engine before the race gets up to full speed.