James Carville once quipped that the only game little republicans learned to play in school was follow the leader. The near cult like following that George W. Bush engendered after 9-11 is testament to that. Many republicans were loathe to question anything he did for fear of being called "un-patriotic".
Then when the GOP faced a presidential nomination process four years ago they found themselves on the wrong end of the nation's sentiment by defending W's decisions on the bailouts. Romney tried to win the hearts and votes of the rank and file in 2008 but in a very weird twist of fate ended up losing to John McCain, a guy nobody really liked.
McCain might have secured the nomination in order to become a sacrificial lamb. The historic nature of electing America's first black president or first woman president played out in the democratic primary season and by the time the GOP settled on McCain, a win in November looked highly unlikely for any of the republicans running.
Primarily in reaction to TARP the TEA party movement grew in strength and took a liking to Sarah Palin. That made swallowing the bitter pill of a McCain presidency a little sweeter and gave Romney a chance to get busy building a case for his election in 2012.
Gingrich took the opportunity presented by Obama's election to work the back channels of conservative politics with his grass roots connect up movement sponsored in every state. He and Romney both spent the last four years seeking out their kind of voters, staying in touch and hoping to launch their campaigns off the backs of their off year organizations.
But as we watch the primary season play out, many in the GOP are getting the same feeling they had four years ago. For all the reasons they can articulate why Obama should be defeated a large number of republicans will quietly confess that they expect him to win.
The combination of his billion dollar campaign, his built in constituencies and the back biting in the GOP primary seems to be setting Obama up pretty well. And though this time around republicans are not interested in a sacrificial lamb, they do realize that winning will require more than better ideas, conservative principles and a promise to repeal Obamacare, for if that's all it took to become the nominee, Ron Paul would be doing better.
No, as Carville said, republicans tend to follow their leaders and in this climate, Romney fits the profile of a leader better than Gingrich. He has risen to the top as an executive. He is better looking, more poised, less bitter and exudes the kind of confidence born out of a life of privilege. This year republicans are favoring Romney's image over that of Gingrich and ignoring principles, policies and promises.
A vote for Romney will certainly not guarantee a republican victory in November, but then again, neither will a vote for Gingrich, Santorum or Paul. So the GOP is leaning more toward style than substance, ignoring Romney's flip flops and looking for the kind of guy who can attract votes because he "looks" presidential.
Oh of course there will be those who make a much more in depth analysis of why Romney is beating Gingrich and the others, but when you break it down to the lowest common denominator among the rank and file, little of that analysis will be on the minds of voters as they enter the polls.
You might argue that my comment gives far too little credit to the American voter, but looking back at 2008, what would make you think that superficiality isn't in play again this year?
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