New Poll Data Should Be Decision Day For Trey And Bill

Rumor has it that the Survey USA poll is due to come out any day now.  When it does, it might be decision day for Trey Grayson.  The latest Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul with high favorables and doing well against the democrats. But Rasmussen didn't poll Grayson, Paul and Johnson head to head.  The new poll will.

Grayson has amassed a good war chest so far.  Paul has kept up or better.  When the new Survey USA poll comes out, if Grayson is behind it wouldn't be surprising, but how far behind could be a game changer.

If Grayson comes in between 5 and 10 points behind Paul he should stay in the hunt.  If he comes in 12-15 points behind he should reassess his future.  If Paul has him beat by more than 15 points it would probably be a good idea for Grayson to change course and begin focusing on the 2011 state elections, here's why.

First, if Grayson runs all the way to May 15 or more points behind Grayson will have to go negative to close the gap, and probably won't.  That means he hurts the GOP chances to keep this seat in the November election.  Second, he will force Paul to spend a ton of money in the primary which would come in handy this summer.  Grayson will not be doing the party any favors and that may come back to bite him in an expected 2011 election for statewide office.

Third, if Grayson drops out now he can transfer his federal account over to the RPK and it, added to the war chest Paul has developed, will give the party a leg up going into the fall elections over the democrats who poll very close to each other and who will have to spend their money in the battle for May.

And fourth, if Grayson gets out now it will open the door for a reconcilliation with Bunning and McConnell to close ranks and perhaps even begin building the donor base needed, not to mention the transfer of Bunning money into the RPK, which will give the republicans a serious financial advantage for the general election.

Johnson on the other hand isn't likely to poll close to the other two although he may come up from low single digits to high single digits but even if he polls at 10% without a million dollars in the bank, he isn't likely to catch the other two despite his popularity with the 3% of registered republicans who attend Lincoln dinners.

While dropping out of a race is not the kind of thing any candidate wants to consider, in this case if Paul has pulled to a 16 point or more lead over Grayson, stepping aside and helping Paul win would almost guarantee Grayson the best possible position to win against Beshear or Conway given how well he polls against the democrats.

Stay tuned.  The next set of numbers could be a game changer.

Comments

[BG]

Hey Robbie. Here is Bill. See any Rand signs?

http://i49.tinypic.com/358qtzr.jpg

Robbie must be at the rally inside Trey or Bill's house. I've been all over the state and as my favorite tweet this week said:
@alexpriest: I'm seeing way too many Rand Paul campaign signs. KY dems, you disappoint me.

[Lordindra]

"At least if Bill Johnson takes the primary, he'll know that he was elected through his own efforts and KENTUCKY supporters, and not by multiple input from a NATIONWIDE campaign."........ Ermmm.... Uhhh, yeah,like that will really happen.... Do you ever read the news, brother Robbie? Rand is FAMOUS for only having 50 +/-, but now draws the biggest crowds of any candidate. HE IS FAMOUS FOR THIS!!! Johnson has absolutely ZERO chance of winning!! How many polls twice a month for almost a year at 2-5% is it going to take for your to realize that Johnson has NO CHANCE OF WINNING!!! AHHH! Dont you get it?! Wow...

[robbie]

I have never been contacted by pollsters (and have always found Ms. Graas to be quite factual). Have been to two events this weekend, one with approx. 200 attendees where there were no visible Rand Paul supporters. At the second event I saw multiple Grayson supporters (many arrived with him, in suits....), a few Johnson supporters, and one supporter each for Martin, Scribner, Stephenson AND Paul. This demonstrates to me that the most accurate poll will be announced May 18.

At least if Bill Johnson takes the primary, he'll know that he was elected through his own efforts and KENTUCKY supporters, and not by multiple input from a NATIONWIDE campaign.

[OWB]

I think that this race started getting ugly a while ago, and is only going to get uglier. Watch for more signs of desperation from Trey Grayson. The negative ads may start up again soon, as his campaign paid for some airtime for this week. As for candidate viability, we now know that Gurley Martin and Bill Johnson are in the same category.

[Lordindra]

Well, Lisa Graas/Mommy just made an official statement that these polls are bogus! SurveyUSA quickly responded to her for spreading false info about the poll.

She says "Dont trust the SurveyUSA poll, we have another poll coming next week that will make your millenium"
Translation: "Dont believe the 2-5% we continually poll at!!! We have one more fake internal poll we do with our friends and neighbors around the same time any legitimate poll comes out to make us seem relevant... Hint, we are polling at roughly 95% now, 1% margin of error!!!!"

However, this time I dont think the Joe Arnold or Marcus Carey will give it the time of day and be stooped into it like they did the last few "internal" polls (or Grayson push polls for that matter).

[Andrew]

BG, I don't think Rand should focus on the general quite yet, McConnell has some tricks up his sleeve I'm sure.

[Mel]

Trey and Bill should drop out and give their money to Rand Paul.

[BG]

So, by margin of error we actually may have a new 3rd place in this thing.... Gurley Martin! I'm sure somehow this is a coverup or some sort of mistake or something that Ms. Graas will lie about.

As for Trey, man he better have a plan or this thing could get ugly! Rand, he better start doing ads focusing on the General. Money Bomb coming March 23rd should be even bigger now! www.winrandwin.com

[JB]

Fifteen points. Buh-bye Trey!

Too many people remember Trey Grayson complaining about the 15% Secretary of State budget cuts Gov. Fletcher implemented and that Grayson is now promoting as evidence of his fiscal conservative bona fides.

And the people who don't remember that do remember the Boone County Parks Tax Grayson promoted and the Northern Kentucky Right to Life survey Grayson refused to answer.

[Andrew]

Rand Paul FTW! OK Johnson supporters, now that your man is polling at 5%, are you ready to admit defeat? Gurley Martin is closing in on you, polling at 3%.

[seamus]

RAND PAUL TAKES 15 POINT LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Rand Paul 42%, Trey Grayson 27%, Bill Johnson 5%, Gurley Martin 3% SurveyUSA/Courier Journal/WHAS11

[Eric]

Lisa, please get real. Johnson has been in the race longer than any other GOP candidate. Longer than Rand Paul. Longer than Trey Grayson. Longer than Martin, Scribner and Stephenson. Johnson has been in the race longer than anyone and has simply failed to catch on. That is why he is polling poorly and raising no money.

[BG]

@Frank, we must live in different worlds. I have met 2 Grayson supporters and they only support him because they are McConnell fans. Everyone else is Rand fans.

@Lisa HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! You're already lying about the poll on your blog before it's released. The only principle you subscribe to is lie and smear Rand. You said, "Sarah Palin won't endorse Rand Paul" and now this. HAHAHAHAHAHA! My only question is will Johnson be within the margin of error of Gurley Martin.

[Marc Carey]

@Arthur: His account is a federal account and he can't use it for a state race. But he can transfer it to the party which maintains a federal account and they can spend it on federal races like the Senate race. Thanks for posting a comment.

[Eric]

Different survey, grassrootsconservative.

The SurveyUSA one out tomorrow includes all six GOP primary candidates.

[Frank]

I want Trey to win real bad sadly I expect the Survey USA poll to show Trey way behind as well.

I don't know how it got to this point. I literally don't know anyone supporting Rand but maybe I'm not talking to the right people.

[Arthur]

Marcus, great analysis.

Although I haven't been following KY politics, I have the following question: Isn't it naive to think Grayson will give away his war chest if he drops out? If he can, it seems more likely he'll just save it for a potential Governor race. What do you think?

[Mel]

Who has more money on hand to spend?

[Lisa Graas]

Interesting note from grassrootsconservative. Also, the only thing currently impeding Johnson is money and everyone knows that. Everyone. So I'm surprised to hear Marcus suggest that Grayson free up his money for Paul but not Johnson. Principles are what matter to me, not personalities. I can't vote for Paul. Ever. I'd like to see Grayson as governor and Johnson in the Senate.

[George H]

Sounds about right, except I think he should bow out at 12 points.

[Greg]

Andrew you likely participated in the Mongiardo push poll he was doing. He didn't include Bill Johnson in that poll.

And was the last sentence of this supposed to read "the best possible position to win against MONGIARDO or Conway given how well he polls against the democrats" not Beshear?

[grassrootsconservative]

I participated in the survey and Bill Johnson was not included in the poll.

[Andrew]

I want some predictions from the "special forces." For some reason these people think Johnson actually has a chance, but this poll will finally settle that argument.

[ProudConservative]

Paul has just ran away with this race and I would expect this poll to just confirm that point once again.