Bill Johnson Say Poll Is A Fraud, He's In It To The Finish

It is not uncommon for candidates to see poll results and swallow them hook line and sinker.  Likewise, it is not uncommon for candidates to see poll results and spit the hook.  What causes each of these results is the psychology which we who have counseled candidates know needs a gentle hand.  But I'm not in the mood for that.

First, if Rand Paul believes that he is ahead by 15 points and begins to gauge his campaign as if that is true, he could lose his margin.  He needs to run as if the poll was fabricated by a left leaning press organization desirous of running a democrat against a libertarian anticipating that the libertarian will get little support from the GOP and thus give their guy a better chance to win.  Is this what is going on?  Who cares, I'm talking the psychology of candidates here, not reality.  You see at this point in a campaign they are all beginning to lose their last tethers to reality.

Take Bill Johnson for example.  He has not polled above single digits except in a poll his most ardent supporters put out which has not received much if any acceptance.  Now, having polled again at 5% in the latest SurveyUSA poll, here is what Johnson says: 

Kentucky GOP U.S. Senate Candidate Bill Johnson today issued the following statement regarding the Survey USA poll.

The methodology used in the Survey USA poll took a sample of Kentucky residents with a telephone number and asked them if they were registered Republicans and likely to vote in the primary.  History shows that regardless of the answer, only 1 in 5 will actually cast a vote in the Republican primary.  This is a name recognition poll more appropriate to a general election than a Republican primary.

What a fraud.

“I will remain in this race primary race until the results on May 18th.  The media, pollsters, Washington elite, power brokers, and money machines will not deter my efforts.”

Likewise Johnson is brushing off reality.  Name recognition is the number one factor in winning campaigns.  You might be right as rain on the issues, but if people don't know who you are, they are not likely to vote for you in winning numbers.  Like it or not, getting name recognition in a campaign is second only to raising a ton of money of course.

Johnson continues to get high marks a Lincoln dinners.  He splits a bunch of voters off of both Grayson and Paul among those who meet him, but he has not been able to break out of single digits and that is not a position from which many winning campaigns have been launched this late in the game.

And as far as Grayson is concerned, while the reality of polling second continues to be difficult I'm sure, all that talk about Mitch being able to pull it out in the end for him is starting to sound a bit like the pre-season hype Bengals fans have been fed for far too long.  Grayson either needs to start running like HE'S 15 points behind, get out of the way or end up 10 points behind and some how or another find a way to celebrate closing the gap all the way to a second place finish.

Polls are fun, but they can be intoxicating in many ways.  All three of these guys need to take a hard look at these recent numbers and seriously re-assess.

Comments

[Kentucky Yall]

As a registered Independent & very conservative - I finally see the division in the Republican Party in Kentucky... It didn't take long to figure out which Republican to support - come the General Election. The registered Dem's & Ind's will be flocking to the PAUL camp, after the primary & when they realize what kind of folks, Johnson & Grayson really are... Quit trying to tag along with the TEA PARTY - this you are not & have never been...

My choice without hesitation is Dr. Rand Paul. I live in Boone County & just recently signed up to volunteer for Dr. Paul's campaign - because I, along with hundreds of 1,000's of other folks...want a real change in DC/KY - not the same old "neo-con" & "neo-lib" ways...

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Bill Johnson is a BIG FRAUD! What's his purpose for running? All he talks about are Pro-Life issues, Alan Keyes & claiming "fraud" whenever he can.

It's funny to see his personal facebook page. Today was the first time I even heard about him & he sounds like the BIGGEST BIGOT - living in Kentucky... More of a reason to expose his spew & ideals to anyone that comes in contact with me. I read that he's unemployeed & lists himself as an International Businessman...

Billy-Boy("BB") - why don't you have any fan pages on your Facebook-for senate, like you do your personal Facebook page? Maybe because ordinary KY citizens will see some of your "RADICAL" associations...like "I AM A ZIONIST"......

BB - your promotional theme is "DUTY - HONOR - COUNTRY"... LMAO!!! Who is your 1st loyalty, honor & duty for.....ISRAEL or AMERICA?

Growing up in Boone County my entire life - my friends/family consisted of 1/3-Catholic, 1/3-Baptist & 1/3 Christian...and all were "TRUE" Conservatives. You are none of these...really... You will say & do anything - in hopes of securing a future job in DC, whether it be on "Gang"son's or Mc"CON"nell's team...

Are you a CHRISTIAN or a ZIONIST (like you so proudly adverise on FB)?

I GUESS COMMON SENSE & POLITICS DON'T MIX WELL - IN YOUR CASE.... You need to drop out Billy-Boy, as your constant spew, isn't dividing Republicans anymore than it already is - it's just a reminder & LABEL, that you're the BIGGEST BIGOT ever to come from KY!!!!!

RAND PAUL FOR US SENATE.....

[Andrew]

The poll released this weekend shows that if in fact Johnson is on the McConnell payroll, it's not working.

[Jeff Winston]

Grayson and Johnson are working together -- evidence is the joint press releases, and some interesting mutual friendships on facebook.

Johnson's purpose, in my view, is to try and kneecap Paul enough to usher in a Grayson win. Grayson in turn probably has pledged to help recoup the money Johnson spent, or to get behind him for another office. In my time in politics, nothing is free. Some of you seem to think Johnson is crazy doing what he's doing, but I am sure he has an exit strategy that isn't "winning."

Paul just needs to keep doing what he's doing (campaigning like he's behind), because apparently it works.

[Marvin Filmore]

Johnson will quit when Grayson and McConnell tells him; and, only after Grayson gets off his ego trip and quits paying him. Bill Johnson is only the patsy in this race who is there to water down Rand Paul's votes.

Grayson is doing serious damage to his own political future with his foolishness of sending out lies and negativity about Rand Paul.

Soon opportunists will sense Trey's weakness and hone in on the next SOS political race. Then when the lose comes, Grayson while face reality of actually working a real job.

[TCE]

LordIndra: If what you say is correct, which I believe it is, then Johnson should have no reason to attack Rand since he's in last. Why not target Grayson, the "true leader" and leave Rand alone to fester in last place? It is pretzel logic. Attack the guy in last but leave the guy beating you alone?

Anyway, one thing we can all agree on is the excellence of this site. Keep up the good work Marcus! I look forward to reading the Bluegrass Bulletin everyday, and I don't even live in Kentucky!

[Lordindra]

Yes, there was a actually another statement of Johnson's that was a bit more rediculous. He added to everything Marcus had released, except that HIS "real numbers" have Paul in 3rd and Grayson ahead. Hmmmmm....

Ok, if that was the case and all the polls have been wrong except his, then why do ANY polls have ANY credibility because they MUST have been wrong more times than we can count!!! If his logic is correct, then a poll has never predicted a winner in a primary, EVER! If his logic is correct, then in primary polling, the man with a 42% loses all the time to a guy with continual 2-5%... WOW!!! If you really look at what I just said, you would realize thats the most rediculous thing anybody could ever say. Its not living in reality, but more like Pandora with Na'vi (thinking of the funny YouTube link with the people trying to live like the Navi in Avatar, LOL!!!)

[Andrew]

I'm trying to figure out how the Johnson supports will spin his 5% polling on May 18th to equal a SDNBJ victory.

[Rich]

Johnson is only in this to help Trey Grayson win the primary. That's it. He's trying to use the same message as Rand Paul in an attempt to siphon votes away from him thus helping Grayson win. I have a question for Johnson. Why is it that you only attack Rand and NEVER Grayson? That right there tells it all...

[Mel]

Grayson should drop out.

If he runs nonstop negative ads, he still won't win, and all he is doing at this point is helping the democrats by hurting Rand Paul.

[Eric]

Johnson continues to deny reality. Though he won't be able to deny his single-digit percentile finish come the morning of May 19th.