Rand Paul Increases Lead Over Grayson To 21 Points In Latest Poll

In the latest poll running a head to head comparison between Rand Paul and Trey Grayson, for the republican US Senate nomination in Kentucky,  Magellan Strategies is showing that Paul's lead has grown to an astounding 21 points among likely Kentucky Republican voters over the former establishment favorite and secretary of state.

Paul also bested Grayson in the favorable/unfavorable test.  Paul scored a 43% favorable rating compared to 31% for Grayson whereas Grayson got a 20% unfavorable rating compared to Paul at 12%.

Here is the description of the sample:

These results are based on a 560N automated survey
conducted February 18th by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies of Louisville,
Colorado. The survey results are weighted to reflect past Republican primary voter
demographics from the 2008, 2007, 2006 and 2004 election cycles. The sample for
this survey was randomly drawn from a Kentucky voter file. Magellan Data and
Mapping Strategies fielded this survey with their own resources and do not have a
business relationship with any campaign, organization or independent expenditure
group that has an interest in the Republican primary election for US Senate.

Comments

[YourBud]

Taika?

[YourBud]

That was to distract you for this, Taika.

http://reddiva.wordpress.com/2010/02/24/when-you-know-the-position-is-wrong/

[Taika]

Hilarious! Two posters saying the exact same thing. It's almost like Grayson/Johnson! :)

[Dr. Duncan]

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies CEO David Flaherty today contacted US Senate candidate Bill Johnson and apologized to him personally for not included his name in Magellan... See More’s February 18th survey of likely Republican primary voters. Magellan CEO David Flaherty stated “It was a gross oversight on our part and we sincerely apologize for any problems this may have caused to the Johnson, Grayson and other Republican US Senate campaigns in Kentucky.”

Flaherty continued, “The US Senate ballot test question from our February 18th survey is not accurate because Bill Johnson and other declared candidates were not included in the question. Without Bill Johnson and the other primary candidates included in the ballot test question the results are obviously not an accurate reflection of the Republican primary ballot that voters will choose from on May 18th.”

[ProudFrontierGal]

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies CEO David Flaherty today contacted US Senate candidate Bill Johnson and apologized to him personally for not included his name in Magellan... See More’s February 18th survey of likely Republican primary voters. Magellan CEO David Flaherty stated “It was a gross oversight on our part and we sincerely apologize for any problems this may have caused to the Johnson, Grayson and other Republican US Senate campaigns in Kentucky.”

Flaherty continued, “The US Senate ballot test question from our February 18th survey is not accurate because Bill Johnson and other declared candidates were not included in the question. Without Bill Johnson and the other primary candidates included in the ballot test question the results are obviously not an accurate reflection of the Republican primary ballot that voters will choose from on May 18th.”

[ProudFrontierGal]

I'm just wondering, why do Paulistas care about Johnson? Should they? After all, they use 5 month old "poll" results from before Johnson began campaigning. The won't address the legitimate flaws of this Magellan poll which I pointed out above. They ignore three of four polls in the past 6 weeks which show Grayson in the lead, Johnson in second, and Paul third. These are three internals and one independant, neither of which were commissioned or paid for by Johnson.
What is apparant is Johnson is perceived as a real threat to Paul and Grayson. Now they have a fundamentally flawed poll of how many people? Plus it is admittedly intended to "influence" public opinion.
So, tout what you wish. The idea of 10 Johnson supporters? Tout that, too. In fact, why not ignore Johnson? He'll go away, away towards a May 18 win while you folks try to figure out why your poll numbers did not hold up. 12 Weeks to go. A lot will happen during that time.
BTW, Big Daddy Ron is 75 yo. Have you got a replacement chose for Campaign for Liberty?

[Benjamin Jefferson]

I wonder if you all will be able to come together and elect a Conservative candidate in the Fall regardless of who wins the primary?
or would you rather have Mongardo?

Think people. Be kind to one another. Let the pollsters do the polls. In the meantime, spread Conservatism. Peace.

[Tea Party fan]

...and Emily the 5 pro Paul remarks are all 4 of Paul supporters.

[Emily]

Tea party fan, you neglicted to remember that the 10 pro Johnson remarks on this thread are all 10 of Bill Johnson's supporters.

[Tea Party fan]

/The public knows that the MSM got Obama in office. They are wise to this now. I ask everyone to always check comments on articles, as above. At this time there are 21 responses, and 10 of them are pro Bill Johnson. Hummmm thats 50%.

[CKT]

Who says yes to what candidate over the phone means little other then to small minds. A 1000 college kids could support a candidate and he would lose to a 100 40 something voters supporting another. Talk is cheap. Most of you know the others here posting consider stopping with the BS and look at the real issue "Money" is the milk of all politics so we are told, that is exactly what bought this and every other poll "We" see. Grayson dyed in the wool party boy= No Vote, Paul=something other then "Grassroots", Bill Johnson= Of the people for the people by the people, which is exactly what we need in DC now more than ever!

[Kelley Matthews]

Bill Johnson all the way for the win. This is nothing but a ploy to demoralize the opposition and sway the decision of the voter. It's the same game plan that Obama and the MSM used in the last election. The people will speak on May 18th.

[robbie]

78% of statistics (and poll numbers) can be bogus depending in how the questions are presented. No....wait.... that's 99%. No, hold on. It was actually 42%....I mean 50%, especially when the pollster ADMITS that his job is to influence public opinion.......actually, it's 20%

[Andrew]

Johnson supporters should take note that as Grayson begins to kick his campaign into high gear in the following weeks, the race will continually become more about Paul vs. Grayson. What I've been saying all along about campaign money is true, you can't win without it. While Paul and Grayson increase their visibility via TV/radio ads, Johnson will fade into oblivion. Sorry, it's the truth. Paul is going to win this thing, and I can't wait to vote for him.

[Jim Fishback]

Odd, They don't ask a comparison with Bill Johnson?????????
Wonder Why??????????????

[Tea Party fan]

They phoned me and gave me only Paul or Grayson to vote for. When I told them I was for Johnson, I guess they counted that as undecided. What a sham.

[TB]

No, Lisa, the one-third undecided figure has not changed in many months.

[ProudConservative]

Paul is running away with this primary!

[lordindra3]

Well its funny that every silly poll the Johnson lovers boast about (which are WIDELY reported as push polls every time) ALWAYS have Grayson in the lead, eventhough every legitimate poll has Grayson sinking further and further. Why should it include Johnson? Last time Rasmussen included Johnson on Feb 5th, it had Johnson polling at A WHOPPING 3% with Grayson strongly TRAILING Paul... Yet, Johnson boasts a poll around the same time that is again reported by those polled as a push poll and yet magically has Grayon in the lead. So with that information taken in account, what seems more like truth? I think the legitimate polls that consistently show Paul leading by bigger and bigger margins, my friends:-) Nobody likes a soar loser and we dont have to push anybody to find the truth;-)

[OWB]

Why do you think that Bill Johnson isn't included in independent polls? Because previous polls showed him at 2% support. These polling agencies aren't bothering to waste their time with him, and justifiably so. Let's face it, despite the fact that he started running for the seat earlier than the others, he has failed to catch on. Considering this, do his supporters actually expect the media to put him on TV for interviews? The absolute poll, to be taken this May, will probably show him at 2% support-AGAIN.

[Brent]

I think it may indeed be bogus, though not as bogus as the polls you tout for Johnson M(r)s. Graas.

[Erica Coyle]

I have to agree with both Lisa and Steve...a very bogus poll. Which comes to mind another question, who paid for this poll and what is his daddy's name....bogus indeed.

[Kim Hamlin]

Just another indication that Trey should drop out, run for Governor Trey!

[Mike Stephens]

Money buys polls and money asks the questions. Kentuckians are sick of machine politics and the only poll that matters is May 18. You can't buy that. Throw out the machines and career politicians. Rand and Trey are like two little boys playing with a hot potato. Bill Johnson is the businessman in this race and was left out of this poll. Who paid for it... follow the money.

[ProudFrontierGal]

No Johnson? No poll.
It's a poll full of holes.
But hey, "Undecided" came in at 33%!
What is the total number of respondants? 4.14% Margin of Error? Hmmm.
Plus, Magellan claims they performed this all by themselves. Phooey! Someone paid for this poll. They don't do this for free.
Why, even Magellan CEO David Flaherty has his disclaimer: "....has extensive experience applying political and data technology throughout his 18 year career at the Republican National Committee, the House of Representatives, and public affairs firms specializing in influencing public opinion."
"Influencing public opinion"? Tell me Big Daddy Ron Paul's fingerprints aren't all over this.
Well, Ron, we don't need you or anyone else from outside the Commonwealth influencing our opinions. We'll make our own informed decisions.
Butt out!

[Ole Boy]

Not sure why the Bill Johnson people are so anxious to see their horse at the back of the pack, but to each their own, I guess.

Someone in the media needs to answer the question that is burning in every Kentucky politico's mind: How in the heck did Trey Grayson end up in this position?

The guy was Bunning's heir apparent. He is (was?) well liked by GOP activists. He burned up several sets of car tires running the roads to GOP events for seven years. He won two statewide elections - one as an underdog and another facing a headwind.

But he can't crack 25 percent of likely GOP primary voters against a guy nobody ever heard of before last summer?

There's not been a meltdown in a statewide race in Kentucky like this since Dee Huddleston was beaten by Mitch McConnell in 1984.

[TJ]

Good deal. Paul needs to kick it into overdrive and finish this thing off. Graysone should either stay in his current position or be replaced by someone else. He doesn't need to continue his career on the government dole.

[BG]

Free Gurley!

Seriously, I wonder when we'll see the next debate. If Gurley is not allowed in it should be just Trey vs. Rand since they are the only ones with poll #s and financial backing.

[Mel]

Girley Martin was left out of the poll!

[Lisa Graas]

I'd hang up on any pollster asking me to choose between these two candidates. What a joke. Any poll without Johnson's name is bogus. Look at the 33% undecided. Isn't that more than ten points greater than the undecideds in the last poll? It's bogus.

[Bfair]

Push polled.

[Steve Hamlin]

Hilarious that they keep pushing polls that fail to include Bill Johnson! Well they wont be able to hide the one in May will they!

[BG]

Wow. He even beat Grayson in Grayson's home district. Strong!