CQ Politics Says McConnell Is Grayson's Ace In The Hole

CQ Politics has rated the general election for the United States Senate in Kentucky a tossup.  But it gives a special nod to the influence of Mitch McConnell in Trey Grayson's chances to secure the republican nomination over Dr. Rand Paul.

While giving credit to Paul for his fund raising to date and acknowledging that Paul was leading in the last public poll, CQ offers the observation that everybody knows McConnell is behind Grayson and "as McConnell goes, so goes the national party."

In somewhat of an agreement with earlier opinions expressed here in the past, CQ agrees that though Paul's appeal has not been to the party insiders nevertheless he will need those very people to win the party's nomination in May.

Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul , R-Texas, is running as a political outsider who is proud that he’s not a career politician. But to win the GOP nomination, he will need the support of the same Kentucky Republicans who worked hard to get McConnell elected to a fifth term in 2008.

No one watching this campaign can deny McConnell's ability to influence votes.  But which way he moves them is still up in the air.

In 2007 his support of Ann Northup over Ernie Fletcher left Ann in a terribly embarrassing position.  Did Kentucky's GOP primary voters have an adverse reaction to Mitch's remedy?  Considering his own narrow victory the next year against Bruce Lunsford McConnell's ability to guarantee election results seems to be a bet not without some risk.

Grayson's relative silence compared to the nearly over-exposed Paul might give the impression that Paul continues to gain votes, when in reality it might just be that Grayson is checking on every bet, keeping a very straight poker face and counting on McConnell as his ace in the hole.

CQ politics caught the "tell".  Now it all comes down to who is holding the cards and who will have enough chips to see the bet and then raise it beyond what the other candidate can match.

As Scott Jennings has was quoted as saying in the CQ article, “I truly believe the tale of the tape on this race will be on Jan. [31] when the [fourth-quarter] fundraising reports come out.”

No doubt Scott. The guy with the most chips will always have an advantage.

Comments

[Tracy Saboe]

George: Republican Primary Voters are grass roots Republicans. They aren't the establishment. The establishment is the national leadership and the power brokers in Washington.

That's one of the themes of this campaign. There's a real disconnect between the average Republican Primary Voter, and the leaders of the party.

Tracy

[George Hughes]

"As McConnell goes, so does the national party." that seemed true in the most recent election cycle, and yes McConnell hasn't seemed very helpful for getting people elected (and 6% is a slim margin for an incumbent national party leader.)

how in the world can you say that Paul is running against the state Republican establishment? Paul has more support of likely Republican primary voters than Grayson - so I can't see how he is running "against" the entire state Republican establishment. Plus, Paul is the only real Republican in the running (Grayson was recently a Democrat and switched parties for financial reasons - in other words, he is a career politician.)

I really don't know why Trey is trying to pull a Giuliani, it seems that he needs to do all the work he can just to start catching up. Trey often doesn't even show up even when he says he will, which is one step below the Giuliani presidential campaign.

[John David Dyche]

A couple of quibbles with this interesting post and a comment.

First, did McConnell actually give Northup any significant "support" against Fletcher? Contrary to popular belief, he did not urge her to enter the primary or do much of anything for her after she did. Just ask her. As with Senator Bunning this year, McConnell simply concluded that the incumbent Republican could not hold the seat. And he was right.

Second, McConnell's victory over Lunsford really was not "narrow." It was a hard and very expensive campaign, no doubt. But in a bad year for Republicans and after everything the national Dems threw at him McConnell still won by 6%. Not a landslide, but not exactly a squeaker either.

After some hesitation, Paul has evidently made an unnecessary and perhaps unwise strategic decision to run against the entire state Republican establishment instead of just Grayson. CQ is correct that McConnell will (now more than ever) help turn out GOP "regulars" for Grayson in big numbers. That could prove decisive in a primary race that really could be close.