Chris Cillizza is reporting that Trey Grayson will head out of state for a fund raising event in New York on December 7th which will be hosted by Mitch McConnell. The event is intended to help former New Hampshire attorney general Kelly Ayotte and Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Both have contested primaries and, according to Cillizza, this event means that McConnell has made his choice.
Both Ayotte and Grayson have been identified as "the establishment candidates". But in Ayotte's case, former New Hampshire governor and now the state's GOP chairman, John Sununu, has made it clear that the people of New Hampshire don't really appreciate the outside influence of the national republicans when it comes to picking their candidates.
"I hope the NRSC understands that New Hampshire doesn't really respond well to having candidates designated from outside the state," Sununu told the [Nashua Telegraph].[TalkingPointsMemo]
McConnell's influence in Kentucky republican politics is less of a problem for Grayson. While the battle for the the early polls continues between Grayson and Rand Paul the battle for republican votes in May still may be influenced in Grayson's favor by McConnell's 'unspoken' endorsement.
Paul's current lead is on a bubble. There is an expanding sphere of fresh air beneath his campaign but when republicans head to the polls in May those numbers may tell a different story.
In the 2007 primary race between then governor Ernie Fletcher and Anne Northup the republican turnout was about 20% of its registration, or about 203,000 voters total statewide. That means the winner only needed around 102,000 votes to win. The party machinery in 120 counties only needed to turn out an average of 850 votes each to capture the nomination.
Paul's popularity continues to increase statewide. But his successful capture of the GOP nomination will require a significant effort designed to meet and/or exceed what the party machinery can and is expected to deliver for Grayson.
Paul's populist appeal is perfectly suited for the November general election but he must first win the primary in order to compete next summer.
McConnell's continued support for Grayson remains a significant obstacle which Paul cannot remove alone. He will need the help of party leaders to gain the necessary leverage.
I would hardly call Paul a populist, at least in an political sense. He is adamantly against redistribution of wealth and the social programs associated with the American progressive populist movements.
Posted by: Yates | November 18, 2009 at 01:29 AM